When are CAFC Opinions Released?

This data is incedental to other research that I’m working-ona and may be important for investors.  Each topo-level in the graph represents 2%. “Published Opinions” are precedential opinions. “Unpublished Opinions” include both non-precedential written opinions and decisions released without opinion.

Comments

[Richard Cauley]

Does anyone have a theory as to why there is a bump in July and August? I assume it has something to do with clerks leaving around the end of June, but it's just a guess. Bump in February is attributable to pre-Xmas work being put off until January, I assume.

And Dennis -- seriously cool graph!!

[Anastasia Beaverhausen]

What's the relevance of this data? Why does anyone care when the CAFC releases its decisions?

[Just another dude]

Somebody played too much Tempest as a kid

[Just an ordinary question?]

Is there some easy way to relate the seven gray topographic lines on the “seriously cool graph!!” to specific quantities of patent decisions for a given month?

What is the average time from Notice of (patent) Appeal to:
A) Oral Argument?,
B) to Decision?, and, what is the average time from
C) Oral Argument to Decision?

(B) minus A)), of course, will be = to (C)), the average time from Oral Argument to Decision.

[Just an ordinary question?]

Dear Ms. Anastasia Beaverhausen,

Do you think a litigant waiting for a decision might care?

[gerry]

I think it would be more interesting to see if there were any correlation with the timing of opinions and whether the opinions are reversals or affirmations.

[Just an ordinary question?]

For those curious who may not remember or never knew, here is a heads-up about Tempest from,
http://www.kfu.com/~nsayer/games/tempest.html
“According to the Video Arcade Preservation Society, Tempest is the 2nd most collected video game. This is despite the fact that these games are 20 years old now (which makes them officially ‘antiques’ and it is obvious that they were not designed for this sort of longevity.”

[anon]

This graph is perhaps too cool by half. It would more clear and meaningful if it had some nuerical quantities or other labels attached to the topo lines and if instead of topo lines there was an x-axis labeled Jan.-Dec and a y-axis labeled with said numerical quantities.

[graphster]

If you add up the total data points for the blue lines you get about 50 points. Same for the red lines.

Thus, each concentric circle represents about 2%.

e.g., 14% prec. opinions in Feb; 12% july; 6% october, etc/

But even with this quantification of the "cool" graph, it seems like not-to-useful information.

[Sean]

Is "unpublished" and "published" the same as "precedential" and "non-precedential"?

[Stu]

I'll go out on a limb here. Perhaps that Mondays have the lowest incidence of issued opinions correlates to the number of federal holidays observed on Mondays?

Perhaps the dearth of non-precedential opinions issued in July and August, corresponds to ..... vacations.

[Video Game Nut]

I think Tempest is the first game to provide perspecitive (3-D) graphical perception. That's what makes it really cool. Not until Wolfenstein did 3-D come into its own genre.

[Andrew Dhuey]

The recent Cybersettle decision came down a mere 15 days after oral argument, and it was a nonprecedential reversal. I've been waiting 5.5 months for a decision in Biomedical Patent v. California, but it's understandable that my case would take a lot longer. No matter who wins, it will be an important precedent in 11th Amendment jurisprudence. I'd imagine the judges on our panel have taken the time to discuss my case with other CAFC judges, and that would slow the process down quite a bit.

[anonymous]

I'd be interested in seeing how of the following variables correlate with the amount of time it takes to issue a decision after oral argument:

1. existence of a concurrence or dissent
2. identity of the authoring judge
3. identity of the dissenting or concurring judge
4. identity of the non-writing panel members

Unfortunately, the date of the oral argument isn't on the opinions, and the court used to not post Rule 36 decisions, so gathering that data would take some time.

[Newt Kellog]

What you really need is to see the same graph at least for one more year to see if this is a pattern of not.
Also, Tempest fan that I am, why not just graph this along a straight axis?

[Anastasia Beaverhausen]

Good point "Just an ordinary question?," but I still don't see the real value in this data. I mean, once arguments for each side are submitted for consideration by the court what more can you do but just wait for the decision to come down. Whether the wait is one month or four months, you still have to wait. It might be nice to know when exactly you'll get a decision, but this data won't tell you that. One thing that I would like to see though, is whether there is any correlation between the time it takes to render a decision and the "complexity" of the patent-at-issue or the art involved, e.g. does it take longer to decide biotech/pharma cases than it does electrical/mechanical cases?

[anonymous]

A. Beaverhausen writes:

"Whether the wait is one month or four months, you still have to wait. It might be nice to know when exactly you'll get a decision, but this data won't tell you that."

Sometimes time is of the essence (see the Plavix case and the amazon.com v. barnesandnoble.com) and the length of the delay matters more than the result of the decision. If the parties can predict more accurately the length of the delay, they might settle under some circumstances.

As you note, there might be lots of other variables that influence the delay.

[Andrew Dhuey]

Anastasia Beaverhausen, of course you're right, but as you might have experienced, after you spend months preparing your briefs, thinking through the questions you'll likely face at oral argument and you argue the case, it's hard to turn your mind off.

In my case, I think about what a 5.5 month delay means. Are they carefully crafting a sweeping precedential opinion in my favor? Are they just busy with other cases? It's a very silly, pointless exercise, but I can't help myself.